Introduction to Futures Thinking Practise
This is a brief inroductory guide for those wanting to learn more about how to think more thoughtfully and constructively about the practise. The guide covers the following information.
What is Futurism?Â
Futurism is the systematic study of possible, probable, and preferable futures.Futurism is not about predicting the future but understanding the forces shaping it and exploring various possibilities.Examples of how futurism is used in different contexts, such as business, government, and social impact organisations.A brief history of futurism.
Why is Futurism Important?
The benefits of futures thinking, including:Â
- Increased creativity and innovation
- Better preparedness for disruptions
- Greater agency and control over the future
- Enhanced optimism and hope
Who are Futurists?
Looks at the different types of futurists, including:
Professional futurists who work for organisations like the Institute for the Future
Individuals who incorporate futures thinking into their work in various fields, such as business, education, art, science, and activism.
Key Concepts and Skills in Futurism
Thinking in Timeframes
The importance of thinking in long-term timeframes, such as 10 years or more, to escape the constraints of the present and consider more transformative possibilities.
Identifying and Analysing Signals of Change
Understanding signals of change as concrete examples of how the world is already becoming different today, offering clues to the future.
Examples of different types of signals, such as new technologies, social movements, economic trends, and environmental changes.
How to analyse signals to understand their potential implications and the direction of change they represent.
Identifying Drivers of Change
Understanding drivers of change as the underlying forces that shape trends and influence the emergence of signals.
Examples of drivers, such as demographic shifts, technological advancements, globalisation, and climate change.
Developing Future Forecasts
Understanding future forecasts as evidence-based predictions about what might happen in the future, acknowledging that there are always multiple possibilities.
How to combine signals and drivers to create compelling forecasts.
The importance of developing multiple competing forecasts to explore a range of possibilities and avoid being blindsided by unexpected developments.
Creating Scenarios
Understanding scenarios as short stories set in a future forecast, providing concrete examples of how the world might be different.
How to develop scenarios from forecasts, using vivid imagery and details to bring the future to life.
The different types of scenarios, such as positive, negative, and challenging scenarios, and their respective purposes.
Embracing Uncertainty and Openness
Understand that the future is inherently uncertain and that futurists must be comfortable with ambiguity.
The importance of continuous learning, curiosity, and collaboration in futures thinking.
Tools and Resources
Futures Thinking Tools
The Three Horizons Framework: A tool for mapping and analysing different waves of change.
The Future Orientation Game: A game for exploring individual and collective attitudes towards the future.
The Look Back to Look Forward Tool: A tool for gaining historical context to inform future thinking.
Organisations and Communities:Â
Key organisations in the field of futurism, such as the Institute for the Future.