What is Futures Thinking and Why Should We Care?

Futurism is the systematic study of possible, probable, and preferable futures. It is not about predicting a single, fixed future but rather understanding the forces that shape the future and exploring a range of possibilities.

Why Study Possible Futures?

Simply assuming that the future will be like the present leaves us unprepared for the challenges and opportunities ahead. Futurism helps us anticipate these changes and develop strategies for navigating them.

Applications of Futurism

Futurism is used in a wide range of contexts:

  • Business: Companies use futurism to identify new markets and develop innovative products and services. For example, they might explore the future of transportation to plan for the emergence of autonomous vehicles or consider the future of work to prepare for shifts in skills and job demands.
  • Government: Policymakers use futurism to develop long-term strategies and plans. They might analyse future trends in areas like healthcare, education, or climate change to inform their decisions and investments.
  • Social Impact: Organizations use futurism to address critical challenges facing society. They might explore the future of conflict to find new ways to build peace, or study the future of food to address issues of food security and sustainability.

The Modern Roots of Futurism

The origins of modern futurism can be traced back to the mid-20th century, with several key developments:

  • Post-War Think Tanks: Organizations like the RAND Corporation, founded in 1948, began applying rigorous methodologies to study future scenarios, particularly in the context of military strategy and technology.
  • Corporate Foresight: In the 1960s, companies like Shell pioneered the use of scenario planning for business strategy. Pierre Wack’s work at Shell in developing multiple future scenarios became a model for corporate futurism.
  • Academic Institutionalisation: The field of futures studies began to take shape in academia. In 1966, the World Future Society was founded, and in 1967, the first graduate program in futures studies was established at the University of Hawaii.
  • Institute for the Future: Proposed in 1966 and officially founded in 1968, IFTF became a leading organisation in futures thinking and research.
  • Influential Futurists: Thinkers like Alvin Toffler (“Future Shock”, 1970) and Herman Kahn helped popularise futurism and its methodologies.
  • Since then, futurism has gained traction in various fields, with universities offering courses in future studies and companies building dedicated foresight teams.

A Brief History of Thinking About the Future

Thinking about the future is not a modern phenomenon. Throughout history, humans have sought to understand and influence what lies ahead:

  • Ancient Divination: Early civilisations used various methods to divine the future, from oracle bones in ancient China to the Delphic Oracle in Greece.
  • Religious Prophecy: Many religions include prophetic traditions that envision future events, often tied to ideas of divine judgment or cosmic cycles.
  • Renaissance Utopias: Works like Thomas More’s “Utopia” (1516) began to imagine ideal future societies, influencing political and social thought.
  • Enlightenment Progress: The 18th century saw the emergence of the idea of human progress, with thinkers like Condorcet envisioning a future of continuous improvement.
  • 19th Century Science Fiction: Authors like Jules Verne and H.G. Wells began to imagine technologically advanced futures, often with remarkable prescience.
  • 20th Century Futurism: The early 20th century saw the rise of artistic and political movements explicitly focused on the future, such as Italian Futurism

The Futurist Approach

Rather than predicting the future, futurism emphasises creating readiness for a range of possibilities. This involves:

  • Developing a deep understanding of the past to identify recurring patterns of change.
  • Analysing “signals” – concrete examples of change happening today that provide clues to the future.
  • Creating multiple scenarios to explore different possible futures.
  • Using these insights to inform strategy and decision-making.

Futurism is about building a more desirable future. By exploring possibilities, we can identify potential problems and take steps to prevent them, as well as envision positive futures and develop strategies to make them more likely. This makes futurism not just a study of what will be, but also a practice of actively shaping what could be.