The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a non-profit that specialises in research into strategic foresight. It publishes 10 year outlooks and will deliver a new report in October this year. This post summarises their latest available report.
The “2022–2032 Map of the Decade” focuses on “The Decisive Decade,” a period from 2022 to 2032 characterized by significant short-term adaptation and long-term instability. This instability stems from multiple sources, including the climate crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical uncertainty, and systemic inequities. The report argues that addressing these challenges will require fundamentally reevaluating business models, incentives, technology use, and economic growth philosophies.
The report outlines three core challenges and associated strategic questions:
Rebuilding Social Infrastructure:
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- Fractured Reality: Addressing the divergence in shared facts and understanding to rebuild collective social agreements.
- Recovering from Collective Trauma: Enhancing emotional and mental wellbeing to cope with the ongoing crises and trauma.
- Renegotiating the Social Contract: Strengthening the implicit and explicit rules that govern civil society to foster cooperation.
Redefining and Scaling New Measures of Success:
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- Creating Equitable Enterprises: Moving beyond shareholder profit as the sole measure of success to include broader equitable metrics.
- Reaping the Longevity Dividend: Transforming the way we measure the value of care work and adapting to an aging population.
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Reinventing the Material World:
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- Energy at the Crossroads: Transforming energy production and consumption to mitigate climate change.
- Food and the Climate Crisis: Adapting the food system to the chaotic effects of climate change and rapid innovation.
- The Future of Place: Redefining how we use and create spaces post-COVID-19 to enhance social interaction and community building.
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The report emphasizes that traditional profit maximization approaches have increased systemic risks, as exemplified by Exxon’s historical response to climate research. In contrast, today’s interconnected world demands a more systemic approach to managing risks. The report provides a framework for organizations to anticipate and prepare for these systemic challenges through strategic foresight, capacity-building activities, and digital platforms for sharing and synthesizing emerging signals.
Overall, the IFTF calls for a rethinking of everything from business practices to societal values to navigate the coming decade successfully.