The report, “Fragmented Reality,” explores the critical question of whether emerging technology will help reconstitute shared reality or exacerbate social fragmentation. The concept of a single, unified reality has become increasingly contested due to political polarization, racial segregation, class inequality, and divergent cultural mores. This fragmentation has led to a shift from a consensus reality to a negotiated reality, where the perception of truth and shared experiences are constantly reassessed and debated.
The Decisive Decade
The report situates this discussion within the broader context of the Decisive Decade (2022-2032), a period marked by short-term adaptation and long-term instability driven by climate crises, pandemic management, geopolitical uncertainties, and systemic inequities. It highlights three core challenges that need addressing to rebuild social infrastructure, redefine success measures, and reinvent the material world.
Critical Uncertainties
The future impact of technology on social fragmentation is shaped by two critical uncertainties:
- Autonomy vs. Mediation: Will society prioritize individual choice or third-party moderation and intervention?
- Secrecy vs. Transparency: Will society favour anonymity and secrecy for security or openness and transparency?
Future Scenarios
Based on these uncertainties, the report outlines four future scenarios:
- Standoff on the Open Range: A digital frontier emphasizing individual choice and open standards, balanced by vigilant citizen watchdogs to maintain transparency.
- Everything is Illuminated: A world prioritizing transparency where machine-amplified discernment reduces disinformation, but personal privacy is minimal.
- Avatars All the Way Down: Highly moderated interactions with pseudonymity, leading to better understanding across social divides but also more rigid social curation.
- Each of Us an Island: A decentralized society with minimal gatekeeping, where identities are highly personalized and trust is managed through smart contracts.
Insights for Future-Ready Organisations
Organisations are encouraged to:
- Lead by example in truthful communication, trust-building, and inclusive identity representation.
- Make ethical technology choices considering access, potential reinforcement of inequalities, and the impact on social cohesion.
Role of Emerging Technologies
The report discusses how technologies like deep learning, blockchain, and the metaverse could either help in defragmenting reality by improving trust and empathy or further fracturing it by creating convincing fakes and enabling irrevocable identity theft.
The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to technology deployment to rebuild social infrastructure and address the critical uncertainties shaping our fragmented reality. The decisions made in this decisive decade will have long-lasting impacts on the stability and health of our societies.
This summary encapsulates the key points and findings of the “Fragmented Reality” report, providing an overview of the challenges and potential future scenarios we face in the evolving digital landscape.